Global EV sales are projected to rise 30% year-on-year (YoY) to 15.1 million units in 2025, representing 16.7% of global light vehicle sales, which are expected to reach 89.6 million units (+1.7% YoY). These compare to an estimated 11.6 million units and 13.2% market share in 2024, according to S&P Global Mobility analysts.
The automotive intelligence company looked at major markets, forecasting for 2025 a 117% EV growth in India to 7.5% market share (of light vehicles), +43.4% in Central and Western Europe to 20.4% market share and +36% in the US to 11.2% market share.
It expects EVs in China to grow 19.7% to 29.7% market share, although the Financial Times cites various other analysts in forecasting that EVs could outsell ICE cars there, which suggests an over-50% market share in 2025. The disparity here could be down to ‘light vehicles’, which presumably includes pick-up trucks.
Indeed, S&P predicts new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration in China (as a percentage of passenger vehicles) to increase from 49% this year to 58% next year, although NEVs by China’s definition include plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and fuel-cell vehicles. Cheaper battery costs and generous national and regional subsidy programmes are mentioned as driving forces.
The company expects China to sell 25.8 million vehicles in 2024 and 3% more in 2025 at 26.6 million units, “despite below par economic activity”. It cites the NEV and trade-in schemes, local government auto incentives, wider government stimulus and the continuation of the vehicle price wars as stimuli.
Regarding the US (projected 16 million units in 2024, +1.2% to 16.2 million units in 2025), S&P mentions uncertainties stemming from Donald Trump’s universal tariffs, deregulation, and wavering EV support.
On Europe (projected just under 15 million units in 2024, +0.1% to around 15 million units in 2025), it cites cautious consumers, strict 2025 emissions rules, economic recession risks, still-high car prices, tapering EV subsidies, EV tariffs, and political uncertainty in Germany and France as reasons for the flatline.
For Japan (projected under 4.4 million units in 2024, +5.4% to 4.6 million units in 2025), S&P says the prospect of US universal tariffs and weaker global economic fundamentals could hurt the country’s exports, especially to North America, although expected slower US EV growth could offer a silver lining.
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