Both Malaysia and Singapore stock markets have rebounded nicely after the big sell down few weeks ago. And now, I think the markets are at a cross road again……..
I expect most markets, including Malaysia and Singapore stock markets to take their cue from the US market after tonight’s much anticipated FOMC rate decision meeting. I was told that most people are expecting a 50 basis point cut. And if that happens, we could see another short term boost in global markets.
Singapore Straits Times Index is now hovering around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of about 3500 points since the sell down from 3688 intra day high on 16th July to the intra day low of 2962 on 17th august. So if the 50 basis point cut materialized, STI may well try to retest the recent day high of 3561 and after that the next greater resistance at 3669.
Some “danger” signals to watch out for :
1. candlestick – doji formed on 14th Sept is a warning signal of potential reversal signal
2. MACD histogram – forming lower highs while STI higher highs warns of potential weakening momentum
3. stochastics – forming lower highs while STI hit higher highs warns of potential weakening momentum
As for the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI ) technical indicators
1. Bollinger band is narrowing – telling us that KLCI may soon experience a sharp move…..either up or down? Maybe depends on US lor i think
2. Parabolic SAR – since turning positive on 21st august, parabolic SAR is narrowing the gap with KLCI and only a fraction away from turning negative
3. Fibonacci retracement – similar to STI, KLCI is also hovering around the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level of around 1290 since rebounding from the day low of 1141 on 17th august. But KLCI seems a bit weaker than STI since it failed to stay above 1290. The recent high of 1305 will be the near term resistance for KLCI.
All eyes on the Feds tonite
And of course what if the Feds disappoint the market by cutting the rate by 25 basis points only, then markets may see another round of correction.
Whatever the case, we will continue to see lots of volatility in the near term.
Be nimble when trading.