Kim Jong-un unveiled his young daughter Kim Ju-ae to the world for the first time on Nov 19. (AP pic)
SEOUL: Recent public appearances of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter have left many experts speculating on their significance for the hermit kingdom’s destiny, including its future leadership and arms programmes.
Kim unveiled his young daughter to the world for the first time on Nov 19, the day after the country fired its latest ballistic missile, in photos showing them hand-in-hand at the launch site.
Her appearance provoked a flurry of attempts by observers to interpret its meaning.
Few would dispute that Kim was trying to send some message by letting the world see his daughter, but experts are divided over what the message is, aside from a demonstration of his strong resolve to continue the country’s nuclear and missile programmes.
The public appearance of the dictator’s daughter gave a powerful twist to the test-firing of the Hwasong-17, the latest in a series of missile launches by Pyongyang in the past weeks.
The Nov 19 edition of Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party, carried photos of a girl holding hands with Kim near the ICBM.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told the country’s parliament on Nov 22 that it believes the girl is Kim Ju-ae, the leader’s second child.
The agency is aware that Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju, gave birth in 2010, 2013 and 2017.
The height of the girl in the pictures indicates she is the child born in 2013, according to the agency.
To dramatise the ICBM launch on Nov 18, North Korean Central Television the next afternoon aired a video of the missile firing that was edited like a Hollywood movie, with enhanced visual and sound effects.
The video was accompanied by a defiant and combative message from Kim, read by a veteran newsreader, saying North Korea will “respond to nuclear with nuclear and confrontation with confrontation”.
It is estimated that the Hwasong-17 can travel more than 15,000km, able to reach the continental US.
The missile, reportedly capable of carrying multiple warheads, was fired from a launcher vehicle with 11 axles.
Kim described the Hwasong-17 as the “world’s strongest strategic weapon”.
Images of the massive missile and Kim’s daughter, seen in public for the first time, must have had a profound impact on people in the secluded country.
The NIS said the media blitz was aimed at demonstrating Kim’s commitment to defending the country for its future generations.
Thae Yong-ho, a former North Korean deputy ambassador to the UK who defected in 2016 and later won election in South Korea, contends that the North’s recent action is meant to send a message that Pyongyang will “never abandon” its nuclear arms.
This analysis is based on the view that Kim’s top priority is to have the US recognise the country’s status as a nuclear power.
Some observers believe Kim’s daughter is being groomed to follow him.
“Ju-ae should be regarded as Kim’s anointed heiress if he continues to bring her to important on-site inspection tours,” said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Sejong Institute’s centre for North Korea studies.
In her second public appearance, Kim took his daughter to a meeting with missile scientists.
Rodong Sinmun’s Nov 27 edition, which carried pictures of the occasion, referred to her as Kim’s “most beloved” child.
Now that she has debuted in public, Ju-ae is destined to live a high-profile life as a member of the Kim dynasty.
The leader’s father, the late Kim Jong-il, never revealed his heir apparent until he decided to make his third son his successor.
Little was known about Kim Jong-un, who had never been seen as a possible heir, until his father collapsed due to a stroke in 2008.
While little information about Kim’s children is available, South Korean intelligence believes his first child is a son.
Some observers say the boy is being educated at home and abroad to become the country’s leader.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, also dismisses the view that Kim intends to hand over his power to his daughter.
“The fact that Kim revealed his daughter before having her idolised in the country suggests that she is not a potential successor,” Yang said.
If she had been considered as such, Kim would have spent more time giving her authority as a person to succeed him, according to Yang and other experts.
Kim Jong-il spent years building up his military leadership.
His son’s stint in the military was brief but included serving in such key posts as army general and deputy chairman of the Workers’ Party’s central military commission.
Kim Jong-un’s exposure to the public was gradual but carefully planned.
Kwak Gil-sup, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul and former analyst at the NIS, is also sceptical about the view that Kim is already preparing for succession.
“He is too young to think about his successor,” Kwak said.
“He took his daughter (to the launch site) probably for its dramatic effect.”
Kwak thinks Kim used his daughter to send a message to both inside and outside the country without provoking the US.
“I’m a father and a husband. And I have children. And I don’t want my children to carry the nuclear weapon on their back their whole life,” Kim told Mike Pompeo in 2018 when the then-CIA director made a secret visit to North Korea, according to Andrew Kim, former head of the CIA’s Korea Mission Center, who accompanied Pompeo on the trip.
Four and a half years on, Kim is clearly determined to stake his country’s fate on its missile and nuclear arsenals, in a clear reversal of what he said in 2018.
He apparently has taught his young daughter about the importance of the arms programmes for the survival of their family.
After failing in negotiations with the US, Kim could never escape from his father’s dictum: Make North Korea a legitimate nuclear power.
Ten years into his leadership, Kim is using his family as a tool to enhance his prestige and leadership.
Some experts regard this as a sign of his confidence about his hold on power.
But it can also be seen as evidence that his dictatorship requires him to use even his loved ones to ensure the regime’s survival amid the harsh reality of international isolation.
