Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research predicts that PH-BN will control Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, while PN will control Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
PETALING JAYA: A research body predicts that both the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional coalitions will retain control of the states they currently administer in the Aug 12 elections.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) presented two scenarios in a report. The first assumes voting patterns will remain as that during the 15th general election, while the second factors in a reduced voter turnout of 67%, alongside a division of BN voters into three distinct groups.
“It is projected that one-third of BN voters will support the PH-BN coalition, another one-third will cast their votes for PN, and the remainder will abstain from voting,” it said.
In both scenarios, NASR said, PH-BN would still be dominant in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. The same applies to PN (and PAS) in Kelantan.
“The PN-PAS domination in Kelantan remains formidable, and even the combined force of the two major coalitions, PH and BN, in 100% of seats, still falls short of mounting a significant challenge to their power,” it said.
“Overall, PH-BN will control Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, while PN will control Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.”
NASR also said BN voters could be the decisive factor in determining the winning coalition in some states.
“Many state constituencies have small majorities of less than 2,000 votes. Given the potential of swing voters who might change their preferences, this figure is relatively small, and the likelihood of shifts remains high,” it said.
“Boosting campaign efforts in these constituencies should be the focus for all coalitions.”
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